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  • expert headshot
    Adam Thompson
    +242.5
    (67%)
    4-2 in Last 6 MLB Game Props Picks
    NYY
    -120
    First 5 Innings Moneyline
    Picked: May 7 @ 10:13am

    Analysis

    Paul Blackburn gets his first start for the Yankees. He might go only about 2-3 innings, but the Yankees’ bullpen has a 1.81 ERA the last two weeks, so that’s OK with us. Blackburn has not given up a HR in 14 innings, whereas Rangers LHP MacKenzie Gore gave up three dingers three starts ago. His road ERA is way higher than his home split, and the Yankees’ OPS vs. LHPs the last 15 days is .991. Texas’ bullpen has been elite, so we’ll go first five, which also gets us better odds.
  • expert headshot
    Matt Severance
    +966.5
    (79%)
    30-8 in Last 38 MLB Picks
    WAS +1.5
    -177
    Spread
    Picked: May 7 @ 11:26am

    Analysis

    I simply don't think Washington should be a home dog against mega-terrible Twins pitcher Simeon Woods Richardson (0-5, 6.49 ERA). That Minnesota lineup leaves a bit to be desired on a getaway day as well. Not a big fan of the Nats' Jake Irvin, either, at 1-4 with a 4.93 ERA. So I want +1.5 protection. The model has the Nationals winning and I'm leaning that way but don't turn down gifts.
  • expert headshot
    Prop Bet Guy
    Doug
    player headshot
    J. Irvin
    Under 16.5
    -122
    Outs Recorded
    Picked: May 7 @ 11:48am

    Analysis

    DraftKings. Jake Irvin has failed to clear more than five innings pitched in five of six starts this season. His pitch efficiency has worsened in the ABS era, with his zone rate dropping to a career worst 50.7%, and his chase rate at 24.7% (13th percentile). His 4.01 pitches per plate appearance is in the 26th percentile of qualifiers, and he also hasn’t been particularly effective (4.93 ERA, 4.81 xERA, 48% hard hit rate). He’ll face a patient Twins team (9th in pitches per PA, 10th in chase rate) that has been starting to break through at the plate of late.
  • expert headshot
    Matt Severance
    #1
    +1457
    (75%)
    49-16 in Last 65 MLB ML Picks
    KC
    -140
    Money Line
    Picked: May 6 @ 11:55pm

    Analysis

    Not that the Royals are very good, but this seems a tad generous of a number with K.C. at home and more important the starting pitching matchup. Cleveland's Slade Cecconi (more on him Thursday) has been one of the worst pitchers in the Show this season at 1-4 with a 6.58 ERA -- that ERA rises to 7.30 away. Also the end of a seven-game trip for the Guards. KC's Seth Lugo (1-1, 2.68 ERA) is about as dependable as they come.
  • expert headshot
    Thomas Casale
    +58.5
    (57%)
    4-3 in Last 7 MLB Picks
    KC
    -140
    Money Line
    Picked: May 7 @ 1:47am

    Analysis

    The Royals saw their 5-game winning streak end on Wednesday but I like Kansas City to bounce back with Seth Lugo on the mound. Lugo has owned this current Cleveland lineup, holding them to a .188 average in 80 career at-bats. He should continue to have success against a Guardians' team that is hitting just .217 versus right-handed pitchers with 211 strikeouts this season. Meanwhile, Cleveland has been a profitable fade with Slade Cecconi on the mound. The Guardians are 1-6 in his seven starts and Cecconi has a road ERA of over 7.00. I'll back KC at home with a big edge in starting pitching.

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