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Today's Top Free Expert Picks

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  • expert headshot
    R.J. White
    #1
    +2370
    (62%)
    56-35 in Last 91 NFL Picks
    KC @ JAC • Mon 8:15pm
    JAC +3.5
    -112
    Point Spread
    Picked: Sep 30 @ 11:54pm

    Analysis

    The Chiefs offense looked back in vintage form against the Ravens, but Baltimore was missing seven defensive starters by the end of the game as injuries became a major issue. The Jags may be without Travon Walker but are much healthier overall on defense, and the unit has played particularly well at home while ranking second overall in EPA per play on the year. I'm not ready to make the Chiefs 3.5-point road faves against a team that's played well, so I see value taking the hook.
  • expert headshot
    Brady Kannon
    +83
    (60%)
    3-2 in Last 5 NFL ATS Picks
    KC @ JAC • Mon 8:15pm
    JAC +3.5
    -112
    Point Spread
    Picked: Oct 2 @ 5:51pm

    Analysis

    Let's not get too excited about the Kansas City Chiefs because they beat Baltimore last week but it looks like that is exactly what the market has done, installing them as a road favorite of more than a field goal. I made the number 2.5, so I believe getting better than 3 is a very good deal. I would not be surprised at all if Jacksonville wins outright. It has been a very profitable situation over the years to go against a road favorite after they won outright as a home underdog the week before. The market inflates this team too much and we get line value with the home dog. Go Jaguars.
  • expert headshot
    Claudia Bellofatto
    Bankroll Bella
    KC @ JAC • Mon 8:15pm
    player headshot
    P. Mahomes
    Over 4.5
    -110
    Total Carries
    Picked: Oct 2 @ 11:14pm

    Analysis

    Mahomes isn’t getting much help from his offensive line, facing early pressure and the fourth most hits in the NFL. As a result, he’s being flushed out of the pocket more than anyone – leading the league in scrambles and leading his team in rushing yards. That script shouldn’t change against a Jaguars front that ranks fifth in pressures. Expect him to keep using his legs to avoid the heat and cash this line, like he has in every game this season outside of last week’s blowout against the Ravens (where he missed by the hook.)
  • expert headshot
    Mike Tierney
    +539
    (67%)
    12-6 in Last 18 NFL ATS Picks
    KC @ JAC • Mon 8:15pm
    KC -3
    -118
    Point Spread
    Picked: Oct 3 @ 11:38am

    Analysis

    We are not worthy, as the Wayne’s World comedy duo once chanted, but the Chiefs have Worthy back. That makes a world of difference to their offense. Back from injury rehab, Xavier Worthy led K.C. in receiving and rushing yards as the sleepy offense awakened Sunday against Baltimore. Jacksonville relies on turnovers with a league-best 14, but K.C. is tied for the fewest giveaways as Patrick Mahomes has been picked just once. The Chiefs almost qualify as regular programming on Monday Night Football — and they welcome it, with eight straight-up wins in the last 10 appearances, mostly against stout competition. As a bonus, they have covered in all but one of the past five games as favorites.
  • expert headshot
    Alex Selesnick
    +428
    (63%)
    17-10 in Last 27 NFL Player Props Picks
    KC @ JAC • Mon 8:15pm
    player headshot
    X. Worthy
    Over 58.5
    -115
    Total Receiving Yards
    Picked: Oct 5 @ 7:06pm

    Analysis

    Xavier Worthy is set to be the focal point of Kansas City’s passing attack. He turned 8 targets last week into 5/83 and posted a very healthy 26% First Read Targets/Route combined with a sterling 2.68 Yards Per Target. He will face what has been a stout Jags defense that has performed very well, but I suspect they might be a paper tiger, while teams are opting to throw frequently in neutral gamescripts indicating they may not be as good as the numbers indicate.

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